Comment

New Ground 69
Autumn 2005

Stopping Climate Choas

"Climate change is the single biggest long-term problem we face - the evidence is overwhelming" (Tony Blair).

The scientific evidence on climate change is now clear. Increasingly frequent extreme weather events are being suffered across the world. We need to act now if we are to avoid catastrophic climate change. The big question is what we should do.

In the next 15 years, further events resulting from our changing climate will lead to the displacement of communities; the disruption of agriculture and food supplies; and damage and destruction to the infrastructure we all depend upon. It is likely to cause economic and political instability, both within countries and across international borders; as countries clash over scarce water and food supplies and environmental refugees seek new homes.

The industrialised world bears most of the responsibility for this problem. G8 nations account for 65 per cent of historic greenhouse gas emissions. But it is the poorer countries who will suffer the consequences.

As the Third Assessment Report of the UN's Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) states: "The impacts of climate change will fall disproportionately upon developing countries and the poor persons within all countries, thereby exacerbate inequities in health status and access to adequate food, clean water and other resources." The countries who have contributed least to this problem will suffer most.

But the impacts will also be felt closer to home. In England and Wales more than 4 million people are at risk from flooding and Europe has already suffered the consequences of heat waves, floods and storms. The 2003 heat wave in mainland Europe resulted in 26,000 premature deaths and cost an estimated $13.5 billion.

To add to the urgency of the problem, scientists predict that unless emissions of carbon dioxide peak and start to decline within the next 10-15 years, we risk a temperature rise of more two degrees centigrade, which could trigger extreme climate change, resulting in environmental devastating and human suffering.

Clearly we urgently need to find effective ways to reduce carbon dioxide emissions - at a national and international level. The UK, one of the richest countries in the world, not only has a moral responsibility to show leadership in tackling climate change - it also has the capacity and ability do so.

To do this, the UK needs to prove that we can reduce carbon dioxide emissions at home. And despite efforts since Labour came to power, this is not yet happening. Carbon dioxide emissions, arguably the most difficult gas to reduce, have continued to rise. In fact, the latest figures show that the UK looks set to breach its target under the Kyoto Protocol.

The Labour Government has some commendable targets for reductions in emissions of carbon dioxide for 2010 and 2050. These targets however, need to be achieved if they are to have any meaning at all.

Friends of the Earth believes that the most effective way to tackle emissions is by gradual year-on-year reductions. The amount of change we see in the climate is determined by the concentration of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere. The longer we wait to tackle emissions, the higher that concentration will be. Because carbon remains in the atmosphere, it is the volume of emissions over a given time frame which should be the real cause for concern, not the level of emissions at any given time.

To avoid catastrophic climate change, emissions need to be cut by 80 per cent from a 1990 baseline. To meet this target, Friends of the Earth believes we need an annual cut of three per cent in UK emissions. As well as ensuring that we start to reduce emissions now, this approach allows us to adapt gradually, bringing on stream clean energy sources and increasing energy efficiency across the board.

Friends of the Earth - a founder member of the Stop Climate Chaos coalition that brings together a diverse group of organisations calling for action on climate change - believes that such an approach can only be achieved through legislation. Attempts to cut emissions in recent years have failed to be given the priority they deserve. A legal obligation will make cuts a necessity.

Annual reduction targets are more effective than long-term targets as they keep us on a steady pathway. They also provide the long-term framework that business is crying out for in order to determine their investment plans. They let us account for success or failure; allowing time for adjustment if policies are failing to reduce emissions.

Climate change is the single biggest environmental threat facing the planet. The biggest question facing our generation is whether we will summon the political will to take the necessary simple actions to protect people and wildlife from dangerous climate change. If we can do this the UK can show the rest of the world the way, and we can encourage others to follow and ensure a better future for people and the environment on which we all depend.

Tony Juniper is the Executive Director of Friends of the Earth