Past seminars

Sustainable Aviation and EU Leadership

17 March 2005

Venue: The Commonwealth Club

1. Context

As the EU has formally recognisedⁱ, growth in air transport is now outstripping environmental improvements from new technology and the industry's considerable own efforts. From 1960-1970, an annual technology induced fuel efficiency improvement of 6.5% was achieved. This rate fell to 1.9% during the period 1980-2000. Looking ahead, as the industry itself has acknowledged, the scope for further improvements in fuel efficiency continues to diminishⁱⁱ.

Against this technology background, air travel has seen substantial growth in the EU over the last twenty years, growing at a faster rate than any other transport mode. In terms of passenger-kilometers, traffic increased by an average of 7.4% a year between the year 1980 and 2001, while traffic at the airports of the EU-15 Member States increased five-fold since 1970ⁱⁱⁱ. Despite the impact on air transport of the 11 September 2001 terrorist attack, the trend rate of air traffic growth is expected to make a robust recovery^iv.

Across the EU, the aviation industry is seeking a “license to grow”. In the UK, the government has recently published its UK Aviation White Paper, proposing substantial growth in UK airport capacity, including 2 new runways in the South East of England over the next 30 years. Across the EU, proposals for airport growth sit alongside highly ambitious environmental challenges, notably on noise, local air quality, and climate change:

On noise, EU political momentum is growing for improved targeting of night time noise, reflected in the political decision to attach a “factor 10” weighting to the disturbance caused by night noise
On local air quality, the health based limits set by EU air quality directives, particularly in respect of NOx emissions, may rightly prevent growth of certain airports, including London Heathrow
On climate change, taxes, emissions charges, and emissions trading have all been floated by the European Commission and EU member states as potential mechanisms for addressing aviation’s rapidly growing climate impact

Climate change in particular poses major challenges to the aviation sector. The EU’s publicly stated long-term climate change policy objective is: “a long-term objective of a maximum global temperature increase of 2° Celsius over pre-industrial levels… In the longer term this is likely to require a global reduction in emissions of greenhouse gases by 70% as compared to 1990, as identified by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)”^v. Building on this, the UK and Swedish Governments have already made commitments to a target of 60% CO2 emissions reductions against 1990 levels by 2050, and have called on other EU member states to follow suit, to help shape the post-Kyoto international climate negotiations^vi.

In the year 2000, UK aviation already accounted for approximately 11% of the UK’s total climate impact^vii. As the graph below shows, without policy action, aviation is projected – on mid range estimates – to grow to occupy about 50% of the UK’s entire climate budget by 2050^viii. Considering the EU as a whole gives a similar picture. Finally, recent scientific developments indicate that aviation’s climate impact needs to be revised upwards, heightening the challenge still further^ix.

2. Proposal

A SERA seminar discussion is proposed around March 2005 to consider the role of EU leadership in furthering sustainable aviation. The seminar would be aimed at 20 high quality decision-makers and opinion-formers, including:

UK Secretary of State for Transport or other UK Government Minister (tbc)
A select number of other politicians from Europe
Some key stakeholders from both industry and NGOs

The seminar would take place at a central London location, near Westminster. It would follow the Chatham House rules, whereby comments could be recorded but would not be attributed to individuals. Discussion would be structured around the following three key themes:

Predict and provide or sustainable aviation – which way are we heading? What are the key targets or outcomes we should be aiming to deliver?
Tackling aviation’s climate change impact – should airport growth be made conditional on climate performance, as is already the case for local air quality? What role for taxes, charges, and EU emissions trading?
Night flights and night noise – what are the priorities?

SERA priorities and specific event objectives

SERA’s priority is to help build EU agreement:

on the need for some form of credible EU policy intervention
on the urgent need to agree climate targets for the EU aviation sector – targets in line with the spirit and environmental credibility of the Kyoto Protocol, that take effect no later than 2008
on a way forward that ensures all airline emissions are targeted, not simply those of EU airlines, and that is consistent with longer term EU public policy objectives on climate change

The specific event objectives would be to:

Build EU political momentum on sustainable aviation and climate change in particular
Develop a short SERA paper, taking into account the general themes of the dinner discussion, on policies for sustainable aviation. This would be submitted at both UK and EU level in the context of current reviews of UK and EU climate policy, and would also be made available to participants of the dinner.

Why now?

This proposal is timely, given that addressing aviation’s climate impact is a declared priority of the UK’s EU presidency in the latter half of 2005. As yet, there is no consensus across the EU on the best way of tackling aviation’s climate impact. The UK government’s public position is to prioritize bringing intra-EU flights within the EU emissions trading scheme (ETS), with blunter instruments the fall back approach if progress with EU emissions trading proves too slow.

Why SERA?

As our name suggests, SERA – the Labour Environment Campaign – seeks to ensure economic, social and environmental concerns are addressed together. We have an established track record of bridging the environmental and social justice movements – and, more specifically, in chairing seminar discussions and facilitating seminars that bring together industry, government, and NGO representatives at the highest level.

Our core membership includes several MEPs, UK Government Ministers and over 100 MPs which, together with our Executive Committee, maintains our reputation for technical expertise and political insight, and as a valued “critical friend”.

ⁱ Communication from the Commission to the Council, the European Parliament, the Economic and Social Committee and the Committee of the Regions - Air transport and the environment Towards meeting the challenges of sustainable development. COM/99/0640 final
ⁱⁱ According to estimates of the Association of European Airlines (AEA) fuel efficiency of the fleet of member airlines will increase in a business-as-usual scenario by 9.7% during the period 1998-2012 which would, in view of most growth forecasts imply further increases of CO2 emissions in absolute terms.
ⁱⁱⁱ European transport policy for 2010: time to decide, CEC, Brussels, 12.9.2001 COM(2001) 370 final
^iv The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has stated that growth in demand for aviation averaged 5% per year for the period 1980–95 and this growth rate is expected to continue until at least 2015. Aviation and the Global Atmosphere, Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Special Report, 1999
^v Article 2, the 6th EU Community Environment Action Programme, adopted in co-decision in 2002
^vi See speech by UK Prime Minister Tony Blair, 24 February 2003. http://www.number-10.gov.uk/output/Page3073.asp
^vii In 2000, UK aviation’s total climate impact was 8.8x2.5=22MtC equivalent (source: Aviation and Global Warming, DfT, Jan 2004), while the total climate impact of the UK economy as a whole was 182.9+(8.8-0.092*8.8)*2.5=202.9MtC equivalent (assuming international aviation emissions are legally allocated 50/50 between country of destination and departure, and an IPCC based RFI of 2.5). The climate impact of UK domestic flights is taken here to be 9.2% of UK aviation’s total climate impact. This is based on NETCEN figures (2.9MtCO2 / 31.4 MtCO2 *100 = 9.2%) given at paragraph D9, Annex D, Aviation and the Environment: Using Economic Instruments, DfT / HMT, March 2003. Source for UK economy wide climate impact: Climate change: The UK Programme, Defra, February 2001
^viii The aviation emissions curve in the graph assumes an IPCC based radiative forcing factor of 2.5 and allocation of aviation emissions 50/50 between country of destination and departure. The numbers 4.6x2.5=11.5MtC equivalent and 17.4*2.5=43.5 MtC equivalent are taken from the central case scenario of Aviation and Global Warming, DfT (2004). Total UK economy climate impact in 1990 is 222.1 MtC equivalent. This number comes from 211.7 MtC equivalent (source: Climate change: The UK Programme, Defra, February 2001), plus 10.44MtC equivalent (11.5MtC equivalent minus the impact of domestic flights in 1990, to avoid double counting). The climate impact of UK domestic flights is taken here to be 9.2% of UK aviation’s total climate impact. This is based on NETCEN figures (2.9MtCO2 / 31.4 MtCO2 *100 = 9.2%) given at paragraph D9, Annex D, Aviation and the Environment: Using Economic Instruments, DfT / HMT, March 2003.
^ix EU TRADEOFF scientific research project findings revise upwards the assessment of aviation’s total radiative forcing, indicating on a mid range estimate that aviation’s total climate impact is 4.3 times that due to aircraft CO2 emissions alone, rather than a factor of 2.7 times, as previously estimated (IPCC, 1999, based on 1992 data)